Crossroads is the first comprehensive stocktaking of what the global low-carbon transition may mean for fossil fuel-dependent countries (FFDCs) and how they can manage it. FFDCs are most exposed to the impacts of global low-carbon transition and, at the same time, often least prepared to manage it. They depend either on the exports of oil, gas, or coal or on the use of carbon-intensive infrastructure (e.g., refineries, petrochemicals, coal power plants), or both.
These countries face at least two climate-related risks. The first-order risk arises from weather-related events induced by climate change. The second-order risk is financial, fiscal, and macro-structural. It arises from the potentially accelerated transition of the global economy away from carbon-intensive fuels.
This report focuses on managing this transition risk and harnessing related opportunities. Crossroads focuses on the countries as well as their national oil and gas companies and state-owned enterprises. Governments own much larger reserves of oil, gas, and coal than the major international companies. State-controlled entities can more directly transfer systemic risk to societies that depend on them. They represent influential vested interests and are often less agile in responding to rapid shifts in market conditions. Furthermore, the sovereigns, not international companies, are parties in international climate agreements.
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