Free shipping on orders over $99
Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation

Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation

Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions

by Dirk Husmeier
Paperback
Publication Date: 22/02/1999

Share This Book:

  $84.99
or 4 easy payments of $21.25 with
afterpay
Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5.
ISBN:
9781852330958
9781852330958
Category:
Neural networks & fuzzy systems
Format:
Paperback
Publication Date:
22-02-1999
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer London Ltd
Country of origin:
United Kingdom
Pages:
275
Dimensions (mm):
235x155x16mm
Weight:
0.46kg

This title is in stock with our Australian supplier and should arrive at our Sydney warehouse within 1 - 2 weeks of you placing an order.

Once received into our warehouse we will despatch it to you with a Shipping Notification which includes online tracking.

Please check the estimated delivery times below for your region, for after your order is despatched from our warehouse:

ACT Metro: 2 working days
NSW Metro: 2 working days
NSW Rural: 2-3 working days
NSW Remote: 2-5 working days
NT Metro: 3-6 working days
NT Remote: 4-10 working days
QLD Metro: 2-4 working days
QLD Rural: 2-5 working days
QLD Remote: 2-7 working days
SA Metro: 2-5 working days
SA Rural: 3-6 working days
SA Remote: 3-7 working days
TAS Metro: 3-6 working days
TAS Rural: 3-6 working days
VIC Metro: 2-3 working days
VIC Rural: 2-4 working days
VIC Remote: 2-5 working days
WA Metro: 3-6 working days
WA Rural: 4-8 working days
WA Remote: 4-12 working days

Reviews

Be the first to review Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation.